Russia Sanctions: Q&A and Resources
The Russia sanctions resulting from the invasion of Ukraine in February have created confusion in the market. These sanctions are the first to affect many publicly traded equities on US and European Exchanges in recent memory. I am writing a Q&A today covering the mechanics of what is happening from my perspective.
An Update on the Macro Thesis for Investing in Turkey and Two Blue-Chip Stocks to Consider
About six months ago, I introduced the idea of investing in Turkey. Unfortunately, it was not and still is not the ideal home for capital. The perception of politics is foggy, currency depreciation appears to be accelerating, and the sentiment is lackluster at best.
Emerging Markets are an Opportunity Set, Not an Asset Class
I am stepping back to do a quick survey of the broader Emerging Markets (EM) space. The broad EM index has dramatically underperformed as compared to developed markets for the last decade.
Another Angle on Commodities Investing: An Analysis of Four Transportation Stocks in Russia
Commodities investing tends to focus on the price of the underlying good. Investors typically concentrate on the good or its producers. For example, in one of my first posts, I outlined various ways of playing the uranium sector.
One Stock in Turkey to Consider NOW
As promised, I wanted to cover specific stocks in Turkey following my background post on the country last month. Sentiment remains terrible, and the lira is making all-time lows vs. the dollar.
This has all the makings of the bargain bin. Turkey is not slipping into the Aegean nor the Black Sea, but the headlines make it difficult for institutional investors to bear. To protect limited capital, local investors may be forced to diversify further into USD or other assets.
Looking for Value in Emerging Market Banks
A great myth in investing has been the homogeneity of Emerging Markets. Once you leave North America, Western Europe, and Japan, it’s like the world is all the same. Whether it’s Emerging Market banks, oil companies, or grocery stores, nuances are irrelevant.
Opportunities in Turkish Stocks in the Eye of the Storm
Perhaps it is the world we live in, but the economic events in Turkey over the past couple of years would usually make bigger headlines. Although the world is more occupied with start-ups, memes, and crypto, a storm and opportunity in Turkish stocks are brewing.
Over the last 24 months, the country’s currency, the Lira, has lost nearly half its value. The stock market has lost about a quarter of its value in USD terms, and inflation is currently near 20%. Yet, the biggest headlines regarding Turkey are bitcoin exchange frauds.
European Bank Stocks, Moral Hazard and Untangling Bank Regulations, Part II
Following up on last month’s piece, we’re going to put the theory to numbers with an example to illustrate the impact of capital rules and the various levers they apply on bank stocks. After that, we’ll look at a couple of European bank stock ideas. If you didn’t read the last post, I recommend you do that first.
European Bank Stocks, Moral Hazard and Untangling Bank Regulations, Part I
Published on March 26, 2021 Time is a bit warped in the COVID-continuum. Still, some of us may remember a little less than a decade ago when European financial stability occupied major headlines for what seemed like an interminable amount of time. Bank stocks there were going to implode, and Europe could not get out of its own way to stop them. Amidst increasing regulatory and product complexity,…
Updates on Uranium, Greece and Russia PLUS Observations on and Improvements to the Blog
This blog started a little over six months ago. I hope it has provided you with ideas, opportunities, and lessons without having to learn the hard way. Today, I want to talk about some observations on the blog itself. Specifically, what’s been popular, a general overview of the readership, and where things are generally headed. I’ll also introduce a couple of new features that I hope will improve your experience. Finally, I will update the key investment themes discussed in prior posts, namely uranium, Greece, and Russia.
A Survey of Capital Controls and Black Market FX: A Refresher for Developed Market Investors
For this first February post, I am stepping back to cover a broader topic important for international investors to understand. We will talk about FX regimes, capital controls, and black market FX—parallel market foreign exchange in PC lingo. Few investors from the US or Europe born after 1980 have never had to deal with the uncertainty surrounding foreign exchange rules, buying, or selling international securities. The dollar has been floating since 1971, and although many European countries have switched from Francs, Lira and D-Marks to Euros, the rules have been pretty straightforward. We’ll let our currency float and occasionally talk it down (rarely up) if it appreciates (depreciates) too much.
Beyond Gazprom Stock and The RSX ETF
The Investment Case for Russia Right Now, Part 2
Following last week’s piece, I wanted to delve into some specific names in Russia, both to consider and to possibly avoid. The background risks and tailwinds discussed in the last post apply to all of these names and should be incorporated into any analysis.
